Monday, February 27, 2006

Global Warming - A myth?

Our good old earth is really old - A whopping 4.5 billion years! Adding 20,000 years (the estimated time since man first came on earth) to 4.5 billion is equivalent to adding a huge amount to infinity! Its still going to remain the same. Arite, what am I getting to??

Its basically this: The total time-span of man's existence on earth is thoroughly insignificant when compared to the life of the earth! Now, how significant can 50 years be in such a huge time-span?? Yupp, you got the answer buddy! "Insignificant to the insignificant"

This is precisely what the green-house gases released by humans, mean to the earth - I.N.S.I.G.N.I.F.I.C.A.N.T!! Ever since the earth came into existence, it has constanly been subject to climatic changes. We've had periods with temperatures reaching thousands of kelvin, to periods where temperatures have gone down to the lowest on the negative scale! It augurs well with the popular saying "Change is the only thing thats permanent"

According to chaos theory, "Climate CANNOT be predicted", as it does not follow any form of linear or perceivably complex equations! It JUST CANNOT be predicted...P.E.R.I.O.D
However, we have our loyal researchers and environmentalists predicting a global temperature rise of 4-5 degrees by the end of the century! For all you know, the sun's magnetic cycle can reverse itself, thereby causing a complete change in the behaviour each and every atom on earth, leave alone the climate! (It is a strongly believed idea that the sun's magnetic cycle influences the pattern of weather, though no-one has modelled how)

Now, lets come to the main point: Humans, in the last 50 years have been accused of altering the entire climatic balance of earth. The emission of excessive green-house gasses is said to be the major cause of this. Everything put together has been termed "Human-induced Global Warming"! I'm pretty sure, 99% of the common-men at least have an increasing urge to believe its true.

Firstly a few facts to clear out the half-baked truths:
1. 99% of the Green House effect is caused due to Water Vapour, and NOT due to CO2 as most people think

2. The total amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere is between a mere 0.3-0.4%!!

3. The increase in the amount of CO2 is still counted in ppm (parts per million), just to project it in big numbers!!

So, how-much-ever CO2 we humans release into the atmosphere, it will take another couple of hundred years for it to even go beyond the 0.45% mark - an increase that doesnt even deserve to be called insignificant!! :) So, what is all this fuss about?? Read on...

Global Warming research is considered to be the highest money-grosser for research grants all over the world...all the conferences, work-shops, models, simluations...billions of dollars...
So, it's actually an open secret among the scientists that "Global Warming CANNOT be proved"...cos, thats climate for you guys...UNPREDICTABLE!

So, these scientists obviously worry about jeopardizing their grants if they opt to reveal the truth! This is the exact reason why The US of A is refusing to sign the Kyoto Protocol...cos, it knows CO2 is of no threat! Or at least, has not proven to be one...

As a final thought-provoker...just think about it guys...logically...all the several changes brought about on earth over billions of years, being undone by a mere 50-years of human activities?? FUNNY, to say the least!

17 Comments:

Blogger Dependsmaybe said...

good blog bugger! write more.

7:01 PM  
Blogger Divster said...

excellent!!! Simply Mind-blowing.

I entered with a bias.. when i read the blog's address 'the gaad'. But, you hav proved me wrong. Ur english is impeccable!!!

hats off! The article was well-worth a read. I will surely recommend it to many! My sincere congrats on keepin the reader's attention UP TILL THE END!!! Ur usage of Caps Lock at places was a very good idea.. it was uniquely placed!

Clap Clap! Bravo.. again!

1:50 AM  
Blogger thegaad said...

Hey divster...if u really liked the post on global warming, read The State of Fear by Michael Crichton...amazing book...and thanks for the compliments...

9:56 PM  
Blogger Divster said...

Hey Ther
Sorry for the late reply.. and LOL, and also for finding the language problem a bit of a discouragement while surfing through my blog.
But, to make it up I have this video which is exclusively for Tamil-speakers.
Please enjoy!

-Divster

2:13 PM  
Blogger Kate said...

Unfortunately your quoted theories have as many holes in them as the ozone layer. Which we have in excess over the equator, while we have a THICKENING over the poles.

What can man do in the mere blink of an eye relative history? Well, we've caused the extinction of several species, devised weapons that have a 1 in 6 chance of splitting the Earth (literally) and we've dumped toxins into our water and ground that have negatively effected the genetics of our population (increase in cancers, MS and Lupus)

The problem with the global warming issue ISN'T JUST CO2, but a number of things. Sure, we know that we are currently in a cycle of heating that is NATURAL to the Earth (and while climate cannot be predicted, TRENDS in climate repeat and CAN be) we are seeing extremes that cannot be excused by these trends.

There are a VARIETY of topics to explore when exploring global warming... to say that there is more money being spent on researching global warming is a manipulation of data... if you lumped all genetics research together (from organ cloning to species identification of the meanest worm and beyond) you could scare people with eugenics issues saying that more money is spent on genetics than any other academic interest.

There is a big movement around here to blow off global warming as insignificant. Why? perhaps the reason is that our government supports buisness interests over environmental interests, and that we DON'T actually read the research, just follow the latest media trend like sheep.

And this blasting of global warming theory has become little mroe than a local media trend...

7:50 PM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@Dorid Lovely: I just wrote in a huge comment...but something went wrong, and i lost the page :(

any way, herz a gist:
"Unfortunately your quoted theories have as many holes in them as the ozone layer"
I have done enough research on this topic, to make sure there are no flaws! If you had at least been more polite and had come out with specific mistakes, i'dve been happy to note ur view, and wdve tried to do more research on that...but now, am sorry cos i dont have a choice but to *prove* that ur points are nothing but an amateur's comments...here goes:

“There is every reason to believe that the variability of global temperature and other
climate characteristics experienced over the past century are part of the natural
variability of the climate system and are not a consequence of recent anthropogenic
activities.”
William Kininmonth, "Climate Change: A Natural Hazard", 2004, p. 134
(William Kininmonth has a career in meteorological science and policy spanning more than 40 years)

Re "TRENDS in climate repeat and CAN be [predicted]"...sorry mate, wrong info...according to chaos theory, climate (and/or its trends) CAN NOT be predicted. All you can do is to give a probabilistic estimate, or a fuzzy logic representation, all of which come with the "Believe at your own risk" tag! lolz

Quote from a research paper on "Cliamatic Trends":
Few natural phenomena change so radically and unpredictably as the daily weather. Meteorologists had long understood how the atmosphere in a given locality could be capricious and unstable from hour to hour. As one authority explained in 1957, tiny disturbances in the air, far below the limits of observation, could grow into large weather systems within a few days. Nobody could predict these unstable processes, so "there is an effective time barrier beyond which the detailed prediction of a weather system may well remain impossible." Beyond that limit, which might be only a few days, one could only look to statistics, the probability of rain or frost in a given month.

Hence, when you oppose, make sure you have valid points to do so...

no time...gotto rush...

and no offense...cheers...

2:37 AM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@dorid lovely: Hey hey found my prev post...lolz

Here it is:

im NOT talking abt what man can do to man or other animals...we all know what he can do! as u said, just a knife or a revoler is enough to end lifes...
but tahtz NOT the point im trying to make here...somethingz are *natural*...earth is...water is...
if manz going to pollute air or water, hez going to suffer (as u said, by getting cancers and mutations)...thatz *proven*

But my point is Global Warming *DOESNT* have ANY proof, what-so-ever...

"TRENDS in climate repeat and CAN be [predicted]"
sorry mate, wrong info...According to chaos theory, nopes, climate (and/or its trends) is as unpredictable as the movent of electrons in matter! (Heisenberg's uncertainity principle is an analogy). YOU JUST CANNOT PREDICT...PERIOD!

"The problem with the global warming issue..."
So, you convinced that global warming due to man IS true?? did anything in particular convince u?? just shares ur thoughts...

"perhaps the reason is that our government supports buisness interests over environmental interests"
if our indian government had done enough research, it wouldnt have agreed to ratify the kyoto protocol. US knows its all crap (as i said, itz like an open secret), and hence wisely refused to put its hands up!

Im still not saying it is alright to pollute the earth...just that going places announcing something *not* proven, to people is not ethical!

3:08 AM  
Blogger Goutham said...

Rather interesting post.. Just a couple of things I wanted to say..

1) Human life span may be insignificant compared to earth's age. But that cannot undermine the effect Industrial revolution has left on the environment. Take depletion of ozone layer for instance. The effect of CFCs on ozone is a proven fact.

2) Chaotic behaviour doesn't unpredictable behaviour. Chaotic systems are actually deterministic systems. In chaotic systems, evolution of a system for very near initial conditions is completely different on a longer timescale (or asymptotically divergent).. A simple example of chaos is 'logistic maps'. Wiki should have it.. Climate behaviour is governed by chaotic equations. It is the difficulty in knowing the exact initial conditions which makes weather prediction difficult. But for short times (over few days), weather can be predicted quite accurately.

3) Even I think global warming has been a good source of funding. But I would hate to believe that scientists do not understand about Global warming. The difficulty is that there is only few decades of data to analyse and study. I am sure with time we should have better models.

6:32 AM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@g'man: EXACTLY! kudos! do u work on such subjects by any chance?? cos, its so rare that i get to meet someone who actually *knows* abt chaos theory and the unpredictable nature of climate!!

"But for short times (over few days), weather can be predicted quite accurately"
I thought i said the same thing too...climate over a couple of weeks may be predicted with a fair accuracy, but saying that there'll be a 5 deg rise in temp in the next *100 years* is sheer non-sense....itz nothing but misleading people, which is I HATE!
(Your comments have inspired me...ill write a blog on climate next...cos i never knew ppl wd understand chaos thoery and the importance of *initial* conditions, and accuracies...lolz)

"The difficulty is that there is only few decades of data to analyse and study. I am sure with time we should have better models."
lolz, this is EXACTLY the point im trying to make...the *time* that we have is soooooooooooo teeny tiny that itz IMPOSSIBLE to find out...assume that 1 year is a small sand...4.5 billion will be taller than everest! thatz how much uncertainty we are dealing with!

btw, loving ur comments...pour in ur thoughts...cheers...

11:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i read few of ur topics potrayed and am confused if one can handle so weel in multiple topics at that ease. but i saw ur orkut profile and peoples testimonilas and am amazed. So no wonder i just sent a request to add as my friend. btw i am adumb s/w engr in virginia.
thanks
Niranjan

1:16 PM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@niranjan: really nice to know that there ARE people to appreciate rebellious posts! keep ur comments pouring...cheers...

3:28 PM  
Blogger Goutham said...

@thegaad
I am flattered that you liked my comments.. Few more thoughts..
----
"do u work on such subjects by any chance??"
Yes, I have worked a bit on complex systems.. Though I don't know anything about studies on weather except for a few talks that I get to attend every now and then..
----
"but saying that there'll be a 5 deg rise in temp in the next *100 years* is sheer non-sense"

From what I know, temperature fluctuations are not studied in the same way as weather prediction.. There are a lot of smart ppl workin on such topics.. There may be some contradictions in the study, which is inherent (atleast initially)in any problem worthy of studying.. Lets give them the respect they deserve.. :) Afterall some of these ppl(in climate study) have researched for years into these topics.. You could not possibly challenge this knowledge on account of an overnight's googling.. ;)

4:03 AM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@g'man: "You could not possibly challenge this knowledge on account of an overnight's googling.. ;)"
M.E.A.N. B.O.Y! hmmph...lolz

Actually i did quite a bit of surfing for months, to get into a conclusion. and michael crichton's state of fear influenced me a lot. have you read it? Awesome it is.
Guess, my next blogz going to be on crichton...

7:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"M.E.A.N. B.O.Y"
I wonder what abbreviates to this acronym? ;) :D

"Actually i did quite a bit of surfing for months, to get into a conclusion. and michael crichton's state of fear influenced me a lot. have you read it? Awesome it is."

You can learn a lot by surfing. I don't deny that. It still cannot be compared with what ppl learn by actually conducting the experiments or performing these calculations.. Right? Crichton is one of my favorites as well. Haven't read State of Fear.. Will try to get my hands on it ..

11:43 PM  
Blogger Goutham said...

the above anonymous comment was mine.. Forgot to login.. :)

11:43 PM  
Blogger thegaad said...

@g'man:
State of Fear is a MUST-READ for all science buffs...grab a copy immediately...i promise u that u wont be able to put it down once u get ur hands on it...so awesome it is...Crichton ROCKS!

11:35 AM  
Blogger Goutham said...

@thegaad
I didn't want to start on this topic again. But I came across this article, which I think you will like.
http://www.aps.org/apsnews/0406/040615.cfm

It is a news article from APS News, a publication of the American Physical Society. This article comments on Crichton's research in State of Fear

2:18 AM  

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